SurveyUSA (10/26-27, likely voters, 10/12-13 in parentheses):
Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 50 (48)
Dino Rossi (Prefers GOP Party): 48 (47)
(MoE: ±4%)
Yesterday I commented, in relation to the UW poll that gave Chris Gregoire a 6-point edge, that national pollsters insist on seeing this as a 1-2 point game, but local pollsters see a wider spread. Well, like clockwork, SurveyUSA rolled in today with a 50-48 spread (in fact, the third time they’ve come up with a 50-48 tally).
This poll is interesting for one reason, though: SurveyUSA this time asked the ‘already voted’ question. 54% of the respondents have already voted, and of them, they’re going for Gregoire at a 53-46 ratio (with 1% undecided!). The remaining likely voters are breaking for Rossi 50-47, but as you can see from the topline, there just aren’t enough of them to win it for him. One other crosstab that I found nice to see: self-described moderates go for Gregoire 57-42, meaning they aren’t buying Rossi’s innocuous sales patter. (Obama is destroying McCan’t upticket, 56-39.)
Goldmark is only down 2 points in the Public Lands Commissioner race. I really hope he pulls it out.
Can anyone explain why the republican is so far ahead in the Attorney General race? Is that guy really that popular or did the dems just not recruit anyone decent?
The other oddity of this survey is that our Sec of State said that only 23% of the ballots have arrived:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.c…
While I believe it’s true that some where mailed after the survey took place (Monday and Tuesday), I do find it hard to imagine that 54% already voted. He’s predicting that 50% will arrive by Friday. Maybe the math works out, but it’s a bit fuzzy.
As with many SUSA polls, it’s hard to imagine the under 35 crowd support Rossi 58-41.